The Bobington Exchange had already made up its mind before the statement was read.

By three o’clock on Thursday afternoon — four hours before Undersecretary Marchetti emerged from the Foreign Office to confirm the agreement in principle — copper was trading at 823 florins per tonne. The word from Chancery Row, passed along the usual channels of informed speculation that connect diplomacy to commerce, was that the session was running long, and running long meant progress.

By the close at five o’clock, copper had fallen to 818 — a decline of fourteen florins from Wednesday’s close of 832, and the sharpest single-day drop since Count Viktor Soren was designated as envoy on 26 February. It was also the tenth consecutive daily decline, a streak without precedent in the Exchange’s modern records.

“The market got what it wanted,” said Clement Varga of the Fernwich Trading House. “A framework, agreed in principle, with a timeline for implementation. Copper is now trading at a level that assumes the strait will reopen within weeks. If it does, we are approaching fair value. If it does not —” he paused — “agreement in principle is not agreement in ink.”

The Numbers

The Eastern Spice Index closed at 311, down from 318 — its ninth consecutive decline and the lowest reading since 8 February, four days before the crisis began. Pre-crisis levels were approximately 295. The index has now retraced roughly eighty per cent of its crisis-era surge.

Municipal bond yields held steady at 3.9 per cent, the level reached after the council’s unanimous tramway vote on 9 March. The Continental Rating Agency is expected to issue its review of Bobington’s fiscal position within the fortnight; Thursday’s diplomatic news is likely to feature prominently.

On the harbour, the spice vessel Havenport — which passed the Cape of Sarenne lighthouse on Monday — is expected to dock on Friday morning with approximately two hundred pounds of mixed spice. If the Kaelmar framework is signed next week, the Havenport may be one of the last vessels to take the Sarenne route. The Stellara, carrying a bulk consignment including a substantial velveroot shipment, is expected by the weekend.

What It Means for the Tramway

The phased tramway plan, approved unanimously by council on 9 March, budgeted Phase 1 copper requirements at 5,200 tonnes. At the time of the commission’s interim report on 28 February, copper was trading at 872 florins per tonne. At Thursday’s close of 818, the implied cost reduction for Phase 1 copper is approximately 280,000 florins — modest in absolute terms, but indicative of a trend that could save tens of millions over the full procurement cycle if sustained.

Deputy Treasurer Annabel Whitford declined to comment on the copper decline’s impact on the bond prospectus, which is expected to be circulated by 31 March. But the direction is clear: lower copper costs, stable bond yields, and a diplomatic framework for the strait all favour the city’s financing position.

“The bond prospectus was being drafted for a world in which the strait might not reopen,” Varga noted. “That world is considerably less likely today than it was yesterday. The prospectus should reflect that — but cautiously. Markets do not respect certainty. They respect prudence.”

The Cautionary Note

Thursday’s copper price of 818 florins remains above the pre-crisis baseline of approximately 740 — the level at which the tramway’s copper budget was originally calculated. The premium reflects residual uncertainty: the Northern Fleet has not withdrawn, the Thessarine garrisons remain reinforced, and the technical annexes have not been signed.

The insurance market, which has been among the most cautious indicators throughout the crisis, has not yet moved. Tidewater Mutual’s Caspar Helmsley confirmed on Thursday that the firm has not written a new Kaelmar-route policy. “We will wait for a signed framework and a confirmed transit date,” he said. “Principles do not underwrite cargo.”

The Merchants’ Guild estimates total fleet rerouting costs have now exceeded two million florins since the crisis began on 12 February. Fourteen vessels remain on the Sarenne route. The guild’s first vessel to transit the strait under the new framework — when it is signed and operational — will mark the symbolic end of the crisis.

That moment is closer than it has been at any point in the past four weeks. But it has not arrived.

The clock, as it were, is still running.