The draft Transit Corridor Framework that emerged from Monday’s seven-hour third session is, by every informed account, the most substantial diplomatic document to have been produced since the Kaelmar crisis began on 15 February.

It is also, by every informed account, incomplete.

Thursday’s fourth session at the Foreign Office on Chancery Row will determine whether the framework becomes an agreement or a footnote. The difference lies in the details — and the details, as they always do in matters involving Delvarian sovereignty, concern who gets to board whose ships.

The framework rests on four pillars: a designated transit corridor through the northern channel, an inspection protocol, a joint insurance mechanism, and a three-month trial period with a review clause. The first and last of these are, sources say, largely settled. The corridor routing and speed limits have been agreed in principle. The trial period — three months, with a formal review conducted jointly — has been accepted by both sides.

The inspection protocol is another matter.

The Thessarine position, consistent since the crisis began, is that any vessel transiting the strait must be subject to inspection. The Delvarian position, equally consistent, is that sovereignty over the northern channel precludes any inspection regime that implies shared authority.

Monday’s breakthrough was the concept of random rather than universal inspection — a compromise that allows Delvaria to maintain the principle of sovereign control while providing the Thessarine Confederation with a credible verification mechanism. But the word “random” conceals as much as it reveals.

Who conducts the inspections? A Delvarian boarding party operating under agreed protocols, or a joint team? What constitutes grounds for a more thorough search? How many inspections per week? What happens if a vessel refuses?

Professor Elias Thornbury, of the Bobington Institute for Foreign Affairs, noted that the 1962 Maritime Accords — which govern freedom of navigation in the Narrow Sea — faced precisely this problem.

“The Fenmouth negotiators solved it by creating a category of ‘advisory inspection’ — non-binding, non-coercive, carried out by either party’s personnel but documented jointly,” Thornbury said. “That language appears to have influenced Monday’s discussions, though whether it can be transplanted to the Kaelmar is another question.”

The insurance framework presents a different challenge. Joint underwriting of the trial period — effectively, a shared guarantee that losses during the three-month corridor operation will be covered — requires both nations to commit capital. Delvarian willingness to co-fund an insurance pool with a nation whose ambassador it recalled three weeks ago would represent a remarkable shift.

Sources close to the talks say Count Soren has been given “considerable latitude” on financial commitments — a phrase that, in Delvarian diplomatic practice, typically means the Ministry of External Affairs has authorised expenditure up to a pre-agreed ceiling without requiring referral to Kharstad.

The Kharstad Gazette’s treatment of Monday’s outcome offers its own form of analysis. A single paragraph on page four, beneath an article on spring wheat planting. No editorial comment. The studied indifference is, by now, a reliable indicator that serious discussions are underway. When the Gazette is loud, the Ministry is posturing. When it is quiet, it is negotiating.

Copper opened at 835 florins per tonne on Tuesday — the seventh consecutive daily decline and the lowest level since before the crisis. The Eastern Spice Index stands at 321. The market has, in its fashion, already decided that an agreement is coming. Whether the diplomats can match the market’s confidence will be determined on Thursday.

The Thessarine consulate on Ashbury Lane was dark by nine o’clock on Monday night. On Tuesday morning, lights were observed in the upper offices before dawn.

Sir Duncan Hale was not seen in public on Tuesday. Count Soren remained at the Delvarian consulate.

The fourth session is expected to begin at ten o’clock on Thursday morning. The Foreign Office has declined to comment on whether it will be the final session.