The arithmetic is merciless at this stage of the season. Three teams, three rounds after today, and a margin of three points separating the leaders from third place. Every match is a reckoning.
Round 23 sharpened the picture. Caravel Harriers, who had wobbled — by their imperious standards — with a narrow 25-22 win over Dunmore, moved to 49 points and a cushion that looks comfortable but is not. The Thornbury Lancers, beaten 24-27 at Fernwich, dropped to 47 and for the first time in weeks look like chasers rather than contenders. The Ashwick Stoneflies, whose four-match winning streak ended at Fernwich, sit on 46 and must win every remaining match to have any chance.
Today’s fixtures:
Caravel Harriers vs Millhaven — The Harriers are at home and Millhaven are a mid-table side with little to play for. Oska Dain will start at centrist. This should be regulation. Coach Wil Sørensen will use it to sharpen his rotation before the round 25 trip to Ashwick Oval — the match that may decide the title.
Ashwick Stoneflies vs Dunmore Eagles — Ashwick Oval, where the Stoneflies have lost only once all season. Fen Barlow, whose breakout campaign has been one of the season’s stories, needs a performance after a quiet night at Fernwich. Dov Marsden, at 36 the oldest regular centrist in the league, will orchestrate. Maren Thatch guards the ring. Dunmore are solid but should not trouble Ashwick at home.
Fernwich Falcons vs Thornbury Lancers — This is the fixture that matters. Fernwich have lost only twice at home all season. They beat the Stoneflies there last week. Now they host the Lancers, who cannot afford a second consecutive loss. Jens Aldric, the league’s leading assist-maker, will need to be at his best. The Falcons’ home record suggests he may not be enough.
The Table
| Pos | Team | P | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Caravel Harriers | 23 | 49 |
| 2 | Thornbury Lancers | 23 | 47 |
| 3 | Ashwick Stoneflies | 23 | 46 |
If Caravel win and both rivals lose, the lead extends to five points with three rounds left — effectively a coronation. If Caravel lose and the Stoneflies win, the gap narrows to a single point and the round 25 meeting at Ashwick Oval becomes a final before the final.
The most likely outcome, of course, is something in between. But the ringball title race has not traded in likely outcomes this season.
Results this evening.