The copper price, which has been declining since 10 March with the steady inevitability of a heavy object on a gentle slope, reached 680 florins per tonne at Thursday’s close. It is the thirtieth consecutive session of decline. The metal has not traded this low since 6 January — well before the Kaelmar crisis began, before the tramway commission was convened, before anyone had drawn up a bond prospectus.

In other words: copper is now cheaper than the assumptions on which the tramway expansion was originally budgeted.

The question is no longer whether the price will fall further but whether the city can lock in these prices before they rise again. That is the work of the Municipal Treasury’s copper hedging working group, which met for the third time on Tuesday at the Treasury, with Prudence Holt of Greaves & Holt Financial Advisory presiding.

Holt, who has advised three municipal authorities and two national infrastructure projects on commodity procurement, is understood to be nearing a preliminary recommendation. Sources within the working group — who spoke on condition of anonymity because the recommendation has not been finalised — indicated that the core proposal involves forward contracts covering approximately 60 per cent of the Phase 1 copper requirement at prices near current levels, with the remaining 40 per cent purchased on a phased schedule over the construction period.

The arithmetic is straightforward. Phase 1 requires approximately 5,200 tonnes of copper. At 680 florins per tonne, the total copper cost would be 3.54 million florins — roughly 24 million florins below the prospectus assumption of 740 per tonne. If forward contracts can be secured near current prices, the saving over the construction period would be substantial.

But commodity markets have memories. The price was 891 less than two months ago. Holt’s challenge is to construct a strategy that captures the current advantage without exposing the Treasury to the risk of copper rising back toward crisis levels.

The Eastern Spice Index, meanwhile, stood at 228 on Thursday — a number that would have been unremarkable six months ago and is unremarkable again.

On the bond itself: a fourth expression of interest was received on Wednesday from an unnamed Caldwell-based institutional investment house. That brings the total to four of six institutions to which the preliminary prospectus was circulated on 25 March. The remaining two — one in Bobington, one in the Ashford Republic — have not formally declined but have requested additional time.

The Continental Rating Agency’s “Satisfactory, Conditional” assessment, delivered on 1 April, remains in force. Its three conditions — completion of the geological survey by 31 December, a copper hedging strategy within sixty days, and Phase 2 contingent on copper remaining below 800 for six months — are being met on schedule. The survey is underway. The hedging recommendation is imminent. And copper, at 680, is obligingly below 800 by a margin that would satisfy even the most cautious of rating analysts.

The formal bond offering remains on track for May. The most expensive page in the prospectus — the blank one, left for the rating — has been filled. It reads: “Satisfactory, Conditional.”

That, in the dry language of creditworthiness, is enough.