The arithmetic of the spice crisis has acquired a new complication: the voluntary price cap works, but only for those who volunteer.

Since the 250 per cent ceiling took effect on Monday, Guild inspectors have visited all 14 member businesses handling eastern spices and found universal compliance. Haroun Nazari, who chairs the four-member Spice Crisis Committee, described the Guild’s adherence as “disciplined and without exception.” The Willow Table’s Simeon Kade, a committee member, confirmed that his wholesale purchases from Guild merchants have been at or below the cap.

The problem lies outside the Guild’s jurisdiction.

At least six non-Guild merchants — four on Ashbury Lane and two on Chandler’s Row — are now selling eastern spices above the cap, up from four reported on Monday. One vendor on Ashbury Lane was observed on Tuesday offering dried saffron bark at approximately 380 per cent of its 10 February price — well beyond the Guild’s 250 per cent ceiling. Another was selling a blended “eastern seasoning” at prices that, when decomposed by weight, implied a velveroot markup of nearly five times.

“The cap means nothing if half the market can ignore it,” Nazari said on Tuesday. “We are not asking the Council to regulate the spice trade. We are asking them to prevent profiteering during a crisis that affects every kitchen in this city.”

The Ordinance Petition

The Committee formally petitioned the City Council on Monday for an emergency pricing ordinance — a legal instrument that would extend the 250 per cent ceiling to all commercial sellers of eastern spices within the city, not merely Guild members. Such ordinances are rare but not unprecedented; the last was invoked during the 2011 dockers’ strike, when coal prices spiked and the Council imposed a temporary fuel surcharge cap.

Council Speaker Desmond Falk acknowledged receipt of the petition on Tuesday but offered no timeline for a response. “The Council is aware of the Committee’s concerns,” his office said. “The matter will be considered alongside other pressing business” — a formulation that, given Thursday’s commission final report and the ongoing diplomatic situation, suggests the spice merchants may have to wait.

Marta Engel, the wholesale broker on the Committee, noted that the Guild’s voluntary cap covers approximately 80 per cent of commercial spice trade by volume. “Twenty per cent outside the system is enough to distort the entire market,” she said. “Customers who cannot find cap-priced stock will pay whatever is asked.”

The Weather Problem

The March gales, which arrived two days ahead of the Harbour Authority’s forecast, are now in their second day and show no signs of moderating before Thursday. Harbour Master Cornelius Ashby extended the advisory through Wednesday evening, with gale-force gusts expected to persist along the exposed southern approaches.

Five vessels are sheltering in harbour, including two cargo ships on the Sarenne route carrying mixed eastern goods. Their arrival at quayside — and the unloading of whatever spices they carry — is delayed by an estimated two to three days.

This matters because every Sarenne-routed cargo already adds twelve to fifteen days to the voyage. The gales now add further delay to an already stretched supply chain. The Committee’s revised stockpile estimate — seven to nine weeks at rationed levels — assumed normal Sarenne transit times. If the gales persist into the weekend, that estimate may tighten.

The Eastern Spice Index rose slightly on Tuesday to 348, reversing four consecutive daily declines. Copper, by contrast, eased to 863 — its movement driven less by spice supply and more by the quiet channel session at Chancery Row.

Wednesday’s Audit

The Committee’s first physical stockpile audit is scheduled for Wednesday. Guild inspectors — accompanied, at Nazari’s insistence, by a representative of the Municipal Markets Board — will conduct physical warehouse inspections of all member businesses holding eastern spice inventory.

“We need to know exactly what we have,” Engel said. “Not estimates. Not what the ledgers say. Sacks counted, weights confirmed.”

The audit will establish, for the first time, a verified citywide inventory. Until now, the seven-to-nine-week estimate has been based on merchants’ self-reported figures. Wednesday’s count may confirm those numbers. It may also reveal discrepancies.

Velveroot remains the most critical shortage: an estimated 38 pounds citywide, sufficient for two to three weeks at rationed distribution. Black cardamom: approximately four weeks. Saffron bark and golden peppervine: five to six weeks. Smoked coriander seed, the least affected variety, may last eight to ten weeks.

The gales, the cap, the ordinance petition, and the audit are all, in their way, attempts to impose order on a supply chain that has been in disorder since the first Delvarian warship appeared in the Kaelmar Strait three weeks ago. Whether order can be imposed faster than the disorder deepens is the question that Wednesday’s count may begin to answer.