Cedric Haughton and Adelaide Lark spent their fourth day in the offices of the Municipal Treasury today, reviewing the final tranche of documentation required for the Continental Rating Agency’s assessment of Bobington’s creditworthiness. Their preliminary assessment is expected to be delivered to Deputy Treasurer Annabel Whitford tomorrow morning, ahead of their departure on the afternoon express to Caldwell.

What that assessment will say is, of course, a matter of considerable speculation and no information. Rating Agency protocol forbids any communication of findings prior to the formal rating decision, which is expected within a fortnight. Haughton, the 58-year-old senior assessor who led the Edgeminster water utility bond downgrade in 2023, has maintained a posture of courteous opacity throughout the week. He nods. He takes notes. He asks questions that arrive from unexpected angles.

It is Lark, the 24-year-old junior assessor on her first field assignment, who has surprised the Treasury staff.

A source within the Treasury described her questioning as “relentless, in a quiet way.” She has, by this source’s account, asked more questions than Haughton over the four days — a reversal of the usual dynamic in senior-junior pairings. She requested, on Tuesday, a ten-year series of copper price data cross-referenced with municipal bond yields. On Wednesday, she asked for the geological survey mandate’s cost assumptions. Today, she reportedly asked for the tramway project’s insurance provisions.

“She asks the question once,” the source said, “and then she waits. She does not ask twice.”

Haughton has been seen conferring with Lark in the Treasury corridor between sessions, leaning against a windowsill with his habitual notebook. Whether he is instructing, consulting, or simply listening is unclear from a distance.

What the assessors have been reviewing is no mystery. The bond prospectus for the phased tramway expansion — due for circulation by 31 March — requires a current credit rating. Bobington’s existing rating, assigned eighteen months ago, reflects a pre-crisis fiscal position: strong reserves, moderate debt, stable revenues. The Kaelmar crisis has introduced new variables: copper price volatility, the geological survey mandate (1.65 million florins), the 14-million-florin transition fund, and the accelerated Phase 1 timeline.

Today’s completion of the Kaelmar technical annexes is, on balance, good news for the bond prospectus. Copper’s fall to 778 florins per tonne — dramatically below the 889-florin level that produced the projected 510-million-florin overrun — reduces the cost assumptions for the tramway’s copper components. The signing, expected Tuesday, should further settle the markets.

But the rating is not simply a function of copper prices. It reflects Bobington’s capacity to service the debt over twenty years, through cycles of commodity prices, economic conditions, and political will. The contingency reserve of 142 million florins, the geological uncertainties beneath the Greymoor Highlands, and the city’s ability to manage a construction programme of this scale all weigh in the calculus.

The formal rating decision, when it comes, will determine whether the bond can be issued at current yields — approximately 3.9 per cent, following the rally on 9 March — or whether a downgrade adds 40 to 60 basis points and 8 to 12 million florins in additional costs over the bond’s life.

Haughton and Lark were observed leaving the Treasury at 5:20 PM today. Haughton carried his leather satchel. Lark carried two expanding folders.

They return tomorrow for the last time.